Unlike the high concern over peak oil, discussions about peak coal have tend to produce less energy, so to speak. This might change with a new study that adds weight to the idea that global peak coal will happen sooner rather than later, and this should make coal reserves a bigger consideration in today’s decisions about climate change and energy security.
The study says peak coal will happen next year or near to it, and studies and policies based on assumptions about centuries worth of coal remaining available are flawed. For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has incorrectly assumed 100 years of increasing carbon dioxide emissions under business-as-usual scenarios, according to the study’s authors.
At the same time, the study’s lead author, Tad Patzek, said in a press release that carbon sequestration efforts are misguided:
“The current global hysteria around carbon capture and sequestration is leading to desperately poor government policies,” says Patzek. “For instance, large-scale subsurface sequestration of CO2 will decrease power plant efficiency by up to 50 percent. The same resources could be spent more wisely on increasing U.S. coal-fired power plant efficiency by 50 percent from the current 32 percent.”
Making coal-fired power plants emit less carbon may be a better route than trying to capture some of the carbon they produce, but this is arguing at the margins of the larger problem. We’ve already emitted enough carbon dioxide to assure nasty climate change effects. We need to drastically reduce emissions rather than simply slow their growth.
The notion that peak coal is just around the corner complicates efforts to model climate change. But it doesn’t change the problem we face or the stark choices we’re left to consider.
Peak coal will increase the cost of coal over time, but it’s not likely to do so sharply enough for soon enough to substitute for a price on carbon emissions. And growing energy demand could easily lead governments to find ways to increase coal subsidies.
From an energy security perspective — if nothing else — peak coal should spur us on to kick the carbon habit (no, it won’t be easy; yes, there will be pain). I worry when, instead, people talk about devoting resources to getting the most out of the fossil fuels we have left.