A US government program to develop better tools for predicting climate change aims to reduce the uncertainty of how global warming will change the planet.
Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM), a joint program of the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture, aims to foster climate models that work on finer geographical and time scales than today’s models.
The government’s announcement stresses expected impacts:
The consequences of climate change are becoming more immediate and profound than anticipated. These consequences include prolonged droughts, increased ecosystem stress, reduced agriculture and forest productivity, altered biological feedbacks, degraded ocean and permafrost habitats and the rapid retreat of glaciers and sea ice — all of which are expected to have major impacts on ecological, economic and social systems as well as on human health.
The models developed with the program’s support promise to aid climate change adaptation:
…planning for the management of food and water supplies, infrastructure construction, ecosystem maintenance, and other pressing societal issues at more localized levels and more immediate time periods…
Metaphorically speaking, this is about battening down the hatches. There was no mention of using the models to better predict what will happen depending on how successfully we curb carbon emissions. Even though climate change adaptation is the program’s focus, it would have been nice to see mitigation or emissions at least mentioned.
No doubt the models will be useful for gauging climate change mitigation efforts, particularly for regional impacts, whatever the stated purpose. And no doubt we’ll need all the help we can get to adapt to the consequences of the changes that are “baked into the system.”
On a related note, Rob Day’s most recent Cleantech Investing blog post gives a snapshot of climate and energy legislation after his visit to DC.