Can we convert our energy system from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy sources in time to avoid ecological and economic disaster?
Many climate scientists say it’s too late to avoid climate disruption, and many proponents of the peak oil theory say it’s too late to avoid economic disruption. Remaking our energy system is a decades-long process. The argument goes that we don’t have that kind of time.
First, most major renewable energy sources are works in progress; there’s a long lag time between laboratory innovation and everyday technology. Second, there’s a lot of work to do on the electric power grid to support increasing demand and to handle distributed clean energy generation. I touched on those issues in a couple of posts (Blackout memories, Clean energy and the grid).
Third, energy-consuming technologies must be converted to cleaner technologies. I talked about the challenges of converting the US car population to clean technologies in a recent post (Is Better Place good enough?). There’s also aircraft, home heating, and factories that are powered by their own fossil fuel plants.
None of this is to suggest that we give up or even ease up. We have no choice but to convert our energy system, and any delay makes it harder. But it does raise questions about what we do and what our priorities are. Should our energy research and development efforts account for increasingly volatile weather, agricultural disruption, shifting populations, fuel shortages, economic hardship, etc.? Should we stress decentralization by focusing on technologies that make regions, communities and individuals more energy self-sufficient?
I think a lot of energy research either tacitly or consciously assumes a political, economic and environmental continuity that may not survive for very long. Should scientists and engineers keep their heads down, work as hard as possible, and only address the larger context as citizens and advisers, or should the research itself reflect the external realities?
In recent years researchers have become more pragmatic by addressing the practical implications of new technologies. More recently some energy researchers have begun to think holistically by considering how their work fits into end-to-end energy systems and how it affects the environment. It’s a trend I’d like to see continue.